Geopolitics as a formal area of interest is new to me though its effects are something I’ve known about at some level for a long time. Roughly speaking, it’s a study of how geography shapes countries’ political environment, location, wealth, and resilience. This was brought to the fore when author and podcaster Peter Zeihan was recommended to me recently.
The author of four books since 2015, Zeihan publishes a semi-daily video-style blog/newsletter on current events and how they relate to his views. There are also quite a few of his and many lectures and talks on YouTube. Throughout the material, Zeihan evolves a view of a future (roughly 2015-2040) that’s very different from the one we’ve lived in for the past 70 years.
The books:
- Accidental Superpower (2014)
Zeihan frames the current geopolitical situation as the drawdown of the global economic system that the United States imposed upon the free world at Bretton Woods after its victory in World War II: The United States used its overwhelming naval superiority to build a global trade network as a means towards the end of soviet containment but is belatedly realizing that the Soviets are gone, that the rest of the world’s markets don’t have much to offer because they are entering dire economic straits due to aging demographics, and that America is insulated both geographically and, thanks to shale oil, its energy independence. (Wikipedia)
“American disinterest in the world means that American security guarantees are unlikely to be honored. Competitions held in check for the better part of a century will return. Wars of opportunism will come back into fashion. History will restart. Areas we have come to think of as calm will seethe as countries struggle for resources, capital, and markets. For countries unable to secure supplies (regardless of means), there is a more than minor possibility that they will simply fall out of the modern world altogether.” (Zeihan from Accidental Superpower) - The Absent Superpower (2017)
The analysis of geographic, demographic, and energy trends proposes that only the United States is geographically wealthy, demographically robust, and energy secure through shale oils. This re-industrializes the United States accelerates the global order’s breakdown, and triggers a series of wide-ranging global military conflicts that will shape the next two decades. The book’s theme is that as the global economy, energy, and security become chaotic, the United States will be insulated and unconcerned … “absent.” Zeihan maps out the threats and opportunities as the world descends into Disorder. (Wikipedia) - Disunited Nations (2020)
This book states that the world is entering its most significant period of change in nearly a century as US hyper-involvement in global affairs is ending. Allies that depend on the USA for security will return to the historical norm: several more minor, competing powers and economic systems throughout Europe and Asia. The impacts on global energy and agricultural markets, finance, and technology will be transformative, but the heirs are not who you think. For geographical and demographical reasons, Russia, India, China, and Brazil will NOT become the future superpowers. (Wikipedia) - The End of the World is Just the Beginning (2022)
Zeihan forecasts the ability of nation states to cope with the consequences of what he sees as inevitable deglobalization, with a particular focus on transport, finance, energy, materials, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors. He predicts the US to fare comparatively well, given its access to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, deepest and best-integrated capital markets, and its energy independence – the latter having been recently acquired through the shale oil revolution. He highlights the productive US agricultural sector, the country’s food exports, relatively favorable climate, and fertile land as additional boons. By contrast, Zeihan paints a bearish longer-term picture of the United States’ economic rivals, especially Russia and China. Zeihan highlights these countries’ aging demographic profile, inferior maritime capacity, and their respective capital markets not being nearly as deep or integrated as the US. He attributes the latter to Western sanctions against Russia and a closed capital market in China. He highlights China’s deep reliance on energy imports as another critical weakness. (Wikipedia)
Accompanying the books are many tables, graphs, and charts. I am still digging into that and thinking through his assertions, but on the whole, I have very few quibbles with his conclusions so far. You must take some of his statements with a grain of salt and remember he makes his living as a consultant and speaker. So some views are gross oversimplifications or broad brush characterizations. Completely acceptable given the venue of a 45 min talk, etc. Just something to keep in mind. Q&A from audiences frequently ask for guidance. In answers, he (wisely) avoids specific predictions beyond those that are clear from the data.
So what is his view? The world as we know it (in a global sense) is changing, and the result will really suck for most people. However, most of those people won’t be American.
He lays out how the US is unique in the world geographically in the following ways:
- While it’s large (and consequently has large borders), it doesn’t need to defend them. It saves money other countries spend on land-based military/border guards. The US also avoids the psychological effect of concern about invasive neighbors.
- It’s energy independent now and for the foreseeable future (specifically in fossil fuels and nuclear) and has large areas well suited to solar and wind.
- It’s a net food exporter (by a wide margin)
- Has a vast network of navigable rivers and a robust complementary infrastructure.
- Protected (from heavy weather) coastal areas (East coast Inter-costal Waterway).
- Year-round ice-free deep water ports on both coasts
- A reasonably healthy age-related demographic
- An indigenous supply of almost everything it needs to maintain its society and culture.
In short, the world needs the US far more than the US needs the world. If you consider that in the context of the recent globalization-driven market, you get some interesting thoughts.
Suggested reading/viewing:
Start with some YouTube talks and interviews. If you like that, then move on to the books.
The books can be read in any order. The most recent is the most polished and fully developed, of course, and that’s the first I read. I couldn’t finish The Absent Superpower (as an audiobook); it goes into great depth about the oil industry and shale oil production in America. After 2 hours, I got it. Check please. However, it seems well researched and in great depth if that’s your thing.
Beyond the books:
- Podcast interview – Pen and Sword: Disunited Nations, with Peter Zeihan (2 April 2020)
- Energy at the End of the World – Seminar at Naval Post-Graduate School (19 May 2022). It’s LONG for YouTube at 2.5 hours, but you get the whole thesis in one lecture this way. Many other talks in the 45-65 min range hit these topics, just not in this depth. So despite the length in this short attention span world, it’s worthy.
- Interview with Mark Moss on his YouTube podcast (21 July 2022). Of all the interviews I’ve watched or listened to, this is the first one that did significant prep work and wasn’t just pitching softballs over the plate. He had actual questions and made some pushback. It forced Peter to justify his position or elaborate on it in some cases. The guy brought a knife to a gunfight; after all, he’s not a twenty-year veteran of this sort of analysis, but at least he’s giving it a shot, so I enjoyed it.